Modélisation IA des régimes de perturbations sylvicoles en Europe à l’horizon 2100
Une étude internationale, coordonnée par la Technische Universität München (TUM), livre pour la première fois une projection à l’échelle continentale des perturbations forestières majeures à l’horizon 2100 : incendies, tempêtes et scolytes.
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Les résultats sont sans équivoque : dans le scénario le plus pessimiste (réchauffement de +4 °C), la superficie forestière européenne affectée pourrait plus que doubler d’ici la fin du siècle. Même dans le scénario le plus favorable (+2 °C), les niveaux de perturbation dépasseraient ceux de la période de référence 1986–2020, qui constituait déjà une phase historiquement élevée.
Le modèle repose sur une architecture d’intelligence artificielle entraînée sur 135 millions de points de données issus de simulations forestières couvrant 13 000 sites européens, couplés à des séries temporelles satellitaires pluridécennales. Cette approche permet une résolution spatiale à l’hectare et révèle d’importantes disparités régionales : les forêts d’Europe méridionale et occidentale seront les plus exposées, tandis que l’Europe septentrionale, globalement moins affectée, verra néanmoins émerger des foyers locaux d’intensification.
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Mais les auteurs refusent de réduire ces projections à un simple bilan des pertes. Les perturbations constituent également des catalyseurs de transformation sylvicole. En ouvrant le couvert, en libérant de l’espace et en réinitialisant la dynamique des peuplements, elles créent des fenêtres d’opportunité pour installer des essences et des structures forestières mieux adaptées aux conditions climatiques futures. La sylviculture est ainsi invitée à dépasser la seule logique défensive pour adopter une posture proactive : accompagner ces renouvellements forcés, orienter la régénération et concevoir dès maintenant les forêts résilientes de demain.
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- Crédit photo. Adobe Stock/shocky
- « How fires, storms, and bark beetles will shape the future of Europe’s forests ». Communiqué TUM, 03.05.2026.
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Forest damage could double
How fires, storms, and bark beetles will shape the future of Europe’s forests
Rupert Seidl / TUMTree mortality is not new; it is a part of natural forest dynamics—where old trees die, young trees regenerate and form the next generation of canopy trees. What is new is the scale at which wildfires, storms, and bark beetles—fueled by climate change—are reshaping forests. Recent years have already shown dramatic levels of forest damage in Central Europe, but until now it was unclear how much forest area might be affected by disturbances in the future. Disturbances determine how much carbon forests can store, how much timber they can provide, and which species they provide habitat for—making the findings highly relevant for policymakers and society.
This knowledge gap has now been filled by a large team of researchers led by Rupert Seidl, Professor of Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management at TUM. The researchers estimate that with global warming of just over 4 degrees Celsius, the area disturbed by fires, storms, and bark beetles could more than double by 2100. As a baseline, the researchers used remotely sensed data from 1986 to 2020—a period that already saw unusually high levels of forest disturbance. Even in the best‑case scenario, with warming limited to roughly 2 degrees Celsius, the researchers expect more forest damage in the future than during this reference period.
Regional differences
The team used an AI‑based simulation model trained on 135 million data points from forest simulations across 13,000 European locations in combination with multi-decadal satellite data on forest disturbances. This allowed them to simulate future forest development and the occurrence and impacts of disturbances down to the level of a single hectare, yielding highly precise insights into regional differences in future forest disturbance trajectories.
According to the study, forests in Southern and Western Europe will be particularly affected and will undergo the strongest changes in forest disturbance. Northern Europe is expected to be less severely impacted overall, though hotspots of future forest damage are also likely to emerge there. “Disturbances are increasingly becoming a cross‑regional issue, disrupting timber markets across Europe and threatening the ecosystem services forests provide for society,” says Rupert Seidl.
The authors of the study therefore see an urgent need for forest policy and management to account for increasing disturbance levels: “We need to be prepared for significant forest damage in the coming years. On one hand, this means we must prepare for and buffer against stronger fluctuations in the services forests provide. On the other hand, disturbances also offer the opportunity to establish new, climate‑resilient forests—they act as catalysts for change. Forestry must address both the risks and opportunities of rising disturbance levels, supported by new scientific methods and insights,” Seidl explains.
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